So here is my analysis for setting my goal for the marathon. Here are a sampling of my past races and other times.
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Chicago marathon – 4:35.07 (ran with a friend at his slower pace, but was hurt too)
IBM 10K – 54:44 – McMillan: 4:16.52 (raced)
Motive half marathon – 2:09.41 – McMillan: 4:33:30 (medium speed, didn’t fully race)
Decker 20K – 2:17.33 – McMillan: 5:04:55 (ran very slowly with a friend as a long run)
ARA 20 Miler – 3:15:10 – McMillan: 4:19:56 (tried for MGP, but got very tight for the last few miles, dehydrated)
Track 1000m – 4:43.66 – McMillan 4:30.19 (best of five done this week)
As a result I think I should state my goal as 4:15 with a 9:44/M pace. Naturally my dream would be to break 4 hours, but that’s quite unlikely based upon my past performance shown above, nor is it appropriate to push this hard at the start knowing that this will cause me to crash and burn (bonk) later. In any case this is quite a difference from the 3:45 goal I had last year, but then I’ve not been pushing it as hard this year. However, a 4:15 is a best-can-do goal depending upon conditions that day. OK, there I’ve said it. Now only time will tell what the truth is.
